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2010 Election Outlook
By Bernadette A. Budde 

At the July 4th break, we were half way through the primaries, with national pundits weighing in on what the voters told us as signposts for November.  Much of what is being said in Washington is based on faulty premises, which leads to a herd of voices saying similar things.  Perhaps the herd is right, but let’s take a look at some facts before leaping into the great unknown of November, now less than four months away. 

The public mood is downright surly, with annoyed voters demanding performance of those in office.  Skepticism about spending practices Washington has undertaken is evident, with reputable polls indicating an electorate willing to toss out everyone, preferring newcomers to those with experience.  At the same time, the two dozen - plus states with primaries haven’t been places where random incumbents lose their elections.  In fact, only six incumbents seeking reelection as senator, governor, representative have been defeated through the first half.  Two of the six were party switchers, asking their new party to accept them in the fold.  One was denied renomination in a convention setting, never making it to the primary.  One had a serious sex scandal and complicated divorce play out in public.  Another was under ethics investigations for several years.  The sixth had primary opposition in previous cycles.

Rather than rejecting incumbents, primary voters have paused long enough to listen to what candidates say, judging platforms and qualifications along with the entities surrounding the campaigns.  As a consequence, the traditional polling projections have been far from predictive, with apparent mood swings as the primary date approaches.  Surveys often show 90 percent or more of the populace having made a choice, but it is common for about two thirds of those respondents to claim they could change their minds before casting a ballot.  A fluid electorate is open minded about new faces.  In this environment, frontrunners are doomed if they come across as entitled.  Party leaders have been confounded by the unfolding of these contests, where contenders, touted by establishment or elitists advocacy groups, have been forced to scramble to stay in contention.  Big money and big television are no longer the path to big victory.

With few months left in the 111th Congress, approval ratings for the body remain poor.  Neither party is well regarded for leadership qualities nor viewed as having solutions for what ails the economy.  Democrats and Republicans are about equal in the so-called generic vote, although these measures have fluctuated very little in the six months since active campaigns have been underway.  President Barack Obama has hovered around 50% in approval ratings, but is bedeviled by how to grapple with the Gulf Oil crisis as well as erratic progress on reducing unemployment..

Here is a recap of where things stand at this point in the election year.

Senate

Democrats hold 18 of the 36 Senate seats on the ballot in November.  They need to win only nine of these races to retain control with 50 seats.  Republicans would control the Senate with a net gain of 10 seats.  Republicans have seven open seats to defend, the Democrats have six.  When the cycle began, Republicans were in jeopardy of slipping below 40 seats because their incumbents were stepping aside in areas where Democrats formed coalitions with independents.  Conventional wisdom now says that Republican pickups are likely, in the range of three to five seats at a minimum.  The most optimistic Republican voices now say control of the Senate is within reach.  The most confident of Republican operatives would argue the party won’t lose any of its seats, thus placing all of the focus of this cycle on the Democratic side of the equation.

Regardless of what happens with the partisan number count, we know the Senate will be a very different place to do business.  With 13 open seats and the departure of prominent fixtures in policy deliberations, both parties are undergoing caucus upheaval.  The senate's longest serving member, Senator Robert Byrd (D - WV), died before July 4.  For Republicans to achieve low-level gain of seats, they will have to elect at least 10 or more nonincumbents.  Anywhere from a fourth to a third of the Republican caucus could come from the Class of 2010, suggesting senior leadership has to adjust to the newcomers.  Democrats already endured the departure of their caucus anchors, and could lose the majority leader.  No matter what the final party breakdown, at least a third of the Senate will be serving in its first term.

The good-year-for-Republicans outlook comes from the following factors:

Democratic Open Seats Republicans Think They Can Capture

  • Connecticut:  Senator Chris Dodd (D) is retiring.  Republicans sifted through candidates during a state convention, which ended up endorsing WWE cofounder Linda McMahon.  She will face Richard Blumenthal (D), the state’s aggressive attorney general.  This is not the easiest seat for  Republicans to win, but McMahon typifies the gutsy outsider unafraid to expose the posturing of an overconfident opponent.
  • Delaware:  Democrats lost their prime recruit when Vice President Biden’s son, the attorney general, decided not to run.  Republicans have former Governor/current Representative Mike Castle (R – A/L).  But, if it is a year where veteran incumbents are in trouble, Castle may not be as strong as he looks.
  • Illinois:  A debate about trustworthiness has put both parties in the spotlight in the contest to replace appointee Senator Roland Burris (D).  Democrats had a complicated primary in early February, won by state treasurer Alexi Giannouillias, who has been forced to defend his tenure at a collapsed family banking enterprise.  Republicans nominated Representative Mark Kirk (R 10), who apologized for mischaracterizing his military record.
  • Indiana:  Senator Evan Bayh (D) isn’t running again.  Former Senator Dan Coats (R) won the Republican nomination and party operatives think he is headed to a return.  But, Democrats selected Representative Brad Ellsworth (D 8), an energetic campaigner and a social conservative, former sheriff.
  • North Dakota:  This is the best chance for a pickup for Republicans with the retirement of Senator Byron Dorgan (D) and the candidacy of popular Governor John Hoeven (R). 
  • Pennsylvania:  Senator Arlen Specter (D) lost the Democratic primary which makes this an open seat.  Republicans settled on former Representative Pat Toomey over a year ago, giving him a head start against the upstart Democratic challenger, Representative Joe Sestak (D 7).

Democratic Incumbents Republicans Think They Can Defeat

  • Arkansas:  Senator Blanche Lincoln (D), often an ally on business issues, beat a labor-backed challenger in the Democratic primary and runoff.  Republicans think she remains tainted by Washington, and they consider Representative John Boozman (R 3) a threat to her return for a third term.  Lincoln is chair of Agriculture.
  • California:  This is the only Senate contest this cycle where both parties have women candidates.  Senator Barbara Boxer (D) faces former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina (R).  Boxer chairs Environment & Public Works. 
  • Colorado:  Appointed Senator Michael Bennet (D CO) has a primary where he is running without the convention endorsement.  Republicans also had a convention dominated by the insurgents.  The primaries are August 10.
  • Nevada:  Majority Leader Harry Reid (D NV) is so weak that he was projected to lose to any of the dozen Republicans who filed.  The chaotic Republican primary favored the tea party choice, former assemblywoman Sharron Angle, who had about 40% of the vote.  Reid said he would vaporize his opponent, but for the first few months, Republicans were doing a great job of torturing their own.
  • Wild Cards:  Washington and Wisconsin with late primaries.

Euphoria should not cloud the complications in some of the 18 seats held by Republicans.  Republicans aren’t exactly running outsiders in high profile open seats while the Democratic contenders come from state elective office.  And, at least one early primary toppled an aspirant who was viewed as too establishment.

Republican Open Seats At Risk

  • Florida:  Reflecting the peculiarities of this cycle, this is now a three-way general election contest.  Governor Charlie Crist became an Independent when Republican former state house speaker Marco Rubio overtook him in polling, along with the proverbial buzz on the campaign trail.  Democrats are expected to nominate Representative Kendrick Meek (D 17), but he faces a late push from a Democratic rival.  Crist is so erratic that should he win, no one can predict where he would align in the Senate.
  • Kentucky:  Tea party activists propelled Rand Paul, a physician/son of Ron Paul, to an easy primary victory.  He faces Jack Conway, the Democratic attorney general.  If the public loses interest or begins to question the tea party ability to “fix-it” rather than just complain, Paul might fade as enthusiasm wanes for insurgents.
  • Missouri:  The Republican nominee will be Representative Roy Blunt (R 7), whose son was such an unpopular governor that he decided not to run again in 2008.  He meets Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D), whose father and mother were statewide elected officials.
  • New Hampshire:  Democrats united early in choosing Representative Paul Hodes (D 2).  Republicans failed to narrow the field and won’t know their ticket until the September 14 primary.
  • Ohio:  Democrats nominated a well-known veteran of state politics, Lt. Governor Lee Fisher, while Republicans selected former Representative Rob Portman who left the House to serve as stint as head of Office of Management and Budget in the Bush Administration.

Prominent senior Republicans aren’t immune to competition.  The party’s 2008 presidential nominee even finds himself challenged in the primary.  Senator John McCain (R AZ) is lining up national endorsements, but back home the town hall crowd, pumped up by talk radio, is behind former Representative J. D. Hayworth.  Republican incumbents in Louisiana and North Carolina have polled at less than 50%, although ahead of Democratic challengers, for over a year.

House 

Republicans would control the House with a net gain of 39 seats.  Similar conditions affect these contests:  the presumption of Democratic vulnerabilities yet wide-open Republican primaries that delay the selection of a single opponent.  The following points are relevant in evaluating individual contests.

  • Despite what the press has reported, there are more Republicans (23) not running again than there are Democrats (19).  If Republicans picked every one of these 19 Democrats open seats (which won’t happen), they would need to defeat a minimum of 20 incumbents to win a net of 39 seats.
  • If Republicans are to make headway in Democratic open seats, the two delegations in the spotlight are Arkansas (two) and Tennessee (two). 
  • Republicans won’t make net gains unless they restore some of the seats lost in 2006/2008 in five key delegations:  Florida, Ohio, New York, Pennsylvania, Virginia.